TzT Bets

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by BanedenHR, Jan 30, 2021.

  1. Octavionn

    Octavionn Non-Financial Advisor

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    LoL! I'll have to send you a bar so you can experience the visuals of its thickness, the feel of its weight (400g bar), the arousing aroma of its scent, the richness of its lather..... ohhh that smooth silky lather.... feels soooo goooooood.... It will make your skin feel like a new born baby!
     
  2. Octavionn

    Octavionn Non-Financial Advisor

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    Ohhh man.. Now I'm tempted to give out soap bars as gifts. LOL!
     
  3. Samassi Abou

    Samassi Abou TZT Abuser

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    I don't know how to do that graph thing, but I thought it'd be interesting to work out how fast each individual stock was rising. Pre-covid I only had two stocks, a bank which is down 1% from when I bought it, and an oil/gas company, which is down about 30%.

    Just after COVID hit, I swooped on the other big three Australian banks, assuming that no matter how bad it got, the government would never let them fail.

    ANZ - up 78%, or 1.7% per week.
    National Australia Bank - up 72%, or 1.6% per week.
    Commonwealth Bank - up 39%, or 0.8 p/w.

    Soon after, expecting that China would ramp up stimulus/infrastructure just like they did after 2008, I bought a mining/iron ore company. I knew this was a sure bet, so I should have put much more money in. No one was talking about it in April, but it soon became conventional wisdom and the stock went nuts.

    Fortesque Mining - up 3.25% per week.

    Then I waited until the end of the year when I glommed onto the ideas of the West creating supply chains that circumvented the troublesome China, plus the rise of a 'commodity supercycle' centred around green tech. These are quickly becoming conventional wisdom, which is sort of what I aim to do. Try to predict what will become an economic conventional wisdom in the months ahead.

    Galaxy Resources (lithium) - up 2.7% per week
    Lynas (rare earths) - up 4.2% p/w
    Oz Minerals (copper) - up 6% per week, but it's only a month old, so we'll see if it settles down.
     
  4. allanun

    allanun TZT Abuser

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    MP has been killing it for me, but I didnt buy enough to hedge some of my massive gamble speculation plays.
     
  5. BanedenHR

    BanedenHR TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    oof owie my stonks
     
  6. BanedenHR

    BanedenHR TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    agrul furiously masturbating
     
  7. Agrul the White

    Agrul the White TZT Regular

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    763
    well yes but that's p normal
     
  8. BanedenHR

    BanedenHR TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    oh, well i havent looked through your window in awhile, so i assumed it was related to the stonks market
     
  9. Fais

    Fais TZT Abuser

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    8,528
    Moderna and Pfizer are going to push this annual booster vaccine. Which I don't think the science at this point supports, even if the financial industry thinks its a good idea. But I know a huge number of old people are going to buy it anyways, especially those that already had the pfizer vaccine. So I decided to put a buy order in for 10 Call Contracts (1000 shares at $1 share) at a strike of $60 to expire Jan 2023, for a total of $1000. This was for Pfizer (PFE)
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    Octavionn likes this.
  10. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    Yeah, pretty ugly today. Mine dropped 2.7%
     
  11. Fais

    Fais TZT Abuser

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    I told my wife that the Gay Mansion guy from TZT said this was the best soap :). She agreed to buy some . I will let you know how it is.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    Octavionn likes this.
  12. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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  13. Octavionn

    Octavionn Non-Financial Advisor

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    LOL!
     
  14. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    Is it normal for stocks to be this tied to slight changes in bond yields in the short term? It’s pretty wild watching them flop around like this.
     
  15. Jackpanel

    Jackpanel TZT Abuser

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    Seems more like old school stock market reactions, where a jobs report coming out that’s 0.1% lower than expected triggers a massive sell off. This past year has been bizzaro world for the stock market, where unemployment rate jumping by multiple percent in a month is shrugged off as the gains continue. If I had to choose between those 2 reactions, I think the first one is probably better for the long term health of the market.
     
  16. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    I’ve definitely been expecting it, because, you know:

    139CB255-25FE-4ECE-8E74-D0F33F9FBB9A.jpeg

    Is completely absurd. I agree that, even in the short term, that can’t continue. Never mind long-term health.

    But, all I’m hearing about is bonds. Would bonds going to 1.5% really have a big impact, or is that just a convenient narrative? I don’t really know how bonds work even a little tiny bit.
     
  17. Jackpanel

    Jackpanel TZT Abuser

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    I just dump money into broad funds and gets updates every couple of months, so I don't know jack shit.

    Isn't bond yields just an proxy indicator of confidence in the market though? If money is moving to the safety of bonds, then there's probably a price drop in the market as money exits? Gold price is a similar indicator, as far as I've always imagined in my 8th grade understanding of finance.
     
    Kanmuk_Sealclubber likes this.
  18. Velox

    Velox TZT Abuser

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    While the situation is ridiculous, you also have to factor in currency fluctuations. The USD has lost some 10% against world currencies, so part of the stock index gains are just the dollar weakening. Currency fluctuations are also connected to the bond market, although I don't really recall all the variables in this, and which is driving what.
     
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  19. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    Virgin Galactic got so heavily beat down I feel like that is a good long-term call option gamble.
     
  20. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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