The U.S. labor shortage is reaching a critical point

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Czer, Jul 5, 2018.

  1. Velox

    Velox TZT Abuser

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    Not sure where you are getting your information, but from a European perspective (which is Russia's by far biggest customer) oil is predominantly imported by tanker, and natural gas by pipeline. I presume you are thinking about LNG (liquified natural gas) via tanker, but the infrastructure for that is more expensive, and more importantly, very small (on all sides) compared to pipelines. It will take time to build out.

    But don't take my word for it, being bored on a train I actually took the time to look up the figures.

    "In 2016, almost 90% of Russia’s 7.5 Tcf of natural gas exports were delivered to customers in Europe via pipeline": https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:1AKclsUKBHQJ:https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.php?iso=RUS+&cd=18&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=se

    European import figures:
    [​IMG]

    Also from an EU policy department report: "Only 20% of the oil are imported through pipelines, whereas pipelines account for 85% of the natural gas",
    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/note/join/2009/416239/IPOL-ITRE_NT(2009)416239_EN.pdf

    Russia is definitely looking to expand LNG exports, but it will take a while. Currently they have like 4% of a tiny market: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ng-market-helped-by-lower-costs-idUSKCN1IX4FI

    However, the entire LNG market is projected to be $20B by 2025 according to this forecast: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-liquefied-natural-gas-lng-market

    Considering that Russia currently exports $93B worth of oil and $38B worth of gas, the LNG ramp up will be a small factor for decades. They do have spare capacity in their gas pipelines to Europe though, but that is not something they can control. European energy dependency on Russia is a problem, and the reason the EU built those LNG terminals to begin with. However, long term it is a mutual depdency, because if they don't play nice, they will have a $40B billion hole in their $250B budget, which is ~15% of their revenue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget.

    This article from RT of all places basically sums it all up: https://www.rt.com/business/426126-russia-energy-exports-revenues/

    So no, the gas market will be much less elastic than oil for quite some time, and Russia cannot easily offset loss of oil revenue by LNG in the near future. However, organic growth in pipeline exports, or the new pipelines under construction may help a bit near-term. Not that I think the oil price will go much lower for long, or that they are desperate yet, but at some point they might. Long term my bet is on renewables and Russia's dominant export is fossil fuels.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2018
  2. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    Cool cool cool, gonna slide this in here

    Russian gas exports to boom despite U.S. pressure and rivalry
    OCTOBER 3, 2018

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...espite-u-s-pressure-and-rivalry-idUSKCN1MD0JC

    MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia is setting records in gas pipeline exports despite U.S. pressure on Europe to reduce imports, and aims to become the world’s leading liquefied gas exporter in the next decade thanks to technology it is developing at home.

    Russian government officials and executives told an industry conference on Wednesday they expect Russia export a record amount of gas this year, potentially exceeding 200 billion cubic metres (bcm) and beating last year’s all-time high of 194 bcm.

    The development comes despite repeated calls by the United States on Europe to diversify its gas imports away from the Kremlin’s pipeline monopoly Gazprom, which Washington says is using energy as a tool of intimidation.

    Gazprom controls 35 percent of the gas market in Europe, larger than any other supplier, and aims to increase its share to 40 percent due to declining European production and the lower cost of extracting gas in Russia.


    “We have been hearing about the reduction in Russian supplies for many years now,” Russian energy minister Alexander Novak told the conference. “But in spite of this, Europe keeps increasing Russian gas imports.”

    Novak said Russia could double gas exports by 2030 to meet soaring global demand.

    That would require Gazprom to build new pipelines to China and Europe, adding some 163 bcm to its exports, while Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could reach 80-115 million tonnes.


    That would put Russia on a par with Qatar, the world’s largest LNG producer, which plans to expand its capacity to 110 million tonnes by 2024 from 77 million tonnes now.

    Russia is a fairly modest LNG producer. Its output comes from a Gazprom-led project on Sakhalin island off Russia’s Pacific coast, and a project led by private producer Novatek in the Arctic Yamal peninsula.

    “Despite the fact that the United States is reluctant to see Russian gas, some cargoes of LNG from Yamal have reached the United States itself this year,” Novak said.

    Novatek’s chief executive, Leonid Mikhelson, said his company had the resources to boost output far above current targets. The company has said it could quadruple output to as much as 80 million tonnes of LNG.

    “We are seeing the birth of a new industry in Russia,” said Mikhelson, adding that Novatek has developed technology to liquefy gas.

    Russia has up to now relied on companies such as French oil major Total to build new plants and provide technology.

    U.S. and European sanctions on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine have made exports of technology to Russia and the funding of projects, such as Novatek’s Yamal, challenging.

    The United States also aims to become a large LNG exporter through its booming shale gas industry, but Mikhelson and Gazprom’s deputy chief executive Alexander Medvedev said Russian gas would still be cheaper in Europe.

    “As the Russian saying goes - they try to scare us but we are not afraid,” Medvedev told the conference.

    He added Europe may need as much as 100 bcm of new gas imports by 2030 because its own production is falling.
     
  3. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    do you guys see where velox doesn't know how to comprehend data that is in constant motion and unable to recognize geopolitical events that coincide

    If anyone presented information the way you did I would call for them to be beaten out of mercy for humanity
     
  4. Velox

    Velox TZT Abuser

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    So you post a fluffy Russian press release that does not actually dispute any of my figures/sources, yet pretend you are somehow vindicated?

    Fact: Russian LNG revenue is *tiny* compared to pipeline gas and oil (see fugures above), and even with quadruple growth (which I btw cited) will still be comparably small in the near future.

    This means oil and gas are not distributed in the same way, and gas is not as elastic since its nostly tied to EU pipelines. This was not what you claimed.

    I don't normally have time to argue, but you hold sttong opinions and are extremely critical of others arguments, yet seemingly dont subject your own to very high level of evidence as long as they coincide with your political views.
     
  5. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    You don't understand what you are talking about.

    Not even the slightest bit. You not only do not understand know what's going on, you have no comprehension of the things being discussed.

    You certainly don't understand geopolitics, you don't comprehend how energy reserves are distributed globally.

    Understanding absolutely nothing, while holding an opinion seems to be your argument stance.

    It's baffling that you have opinions, I would simply embarass you in a in person public forum

    I know when I'm wrong, when something comes to pass and didn't result in what I believed, your words strung together are nonsensical and not grounded in anything
     
  6. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    Like I said to Ziakas

    Let time be the judge of this argument

    Your words are stupid, so are your opinions, and thoughts, keep them in your head where they should stay
     
  7. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    Velox talks about everything -in the moment- nothing that involves time and the slow movement of the world (geopolitics/war/posturing/realpolitik/ideology/finance) is in the moment.

    It's absurd, I would just start yelling at you the more I think about it, your inability to see forward is why these conversations always end up like this, I have no ability to understand why you are stuck

    Russia wasn't even in Syria when I first said they would end up there.
     
  8. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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  9. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    This is nominal GDP

    China's economy is going to end up being the size of both the US and EU combined.

     
  10. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    Over 100 Blizzard customer support staff accept money to quit
    December 24th, 2018

    https://www.pcgamesinsider.biz/job-...-customer-support-staff-accept-money-to-quit/

    More than 100 employees at Blizzard’s Ireland-based customer service office have voluntarily accepted contract buyouts to leave the company.

    As reported by Eurogamer, sources claim staff at the Cork branch were offered payment at least five times over the last few months. The sums of money offered were also increased. One source said the money amounted to a year's salary.

    Those who have so far accepted to leave voluntarily are expected to do so by the end of the month.

    Customer impact

    Concerns have been raised about what the departures will mean for customer support in Europe for Blizzard games.

    The publisher claimed that its services will not be affected despite the high number of leavers. There are not thought to be immediate plans to shut down the Cork office.

    Blizzard has been in the spotlight for a variety of reasons of late. The company saw a backlash from its fans following the announcement of Diablo Immortal.

    Despite this, there appear to be plans afoot to extend its operations further into the mobile space.

    A Kotaku report last month delved deep into what the future holds for Diablo and Activision’s apparent increasing influence on Blizzard.

    This story was originally published on our sister-site PocketGamer.biz.
     
  11. Samassi Abou

    Samassi Abou TZT Abuser

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    Just an illustration of how much extra oil supply there is on the market today. Look how much the supply of oil has grown since 2007. There's no way demand can keep up with that, especially as the world economy and growth in China seems to be slowing.

    They say that oil has a 30 year cycle; 15 years of high prices then 15 years of low prices, and you can see that in the shaded areas on the graph.

    1545677014-l4.png
     
  12. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    I wouldn't count on that, you have a lot of countries who are developing at the same time with massive populations. Bangladesh/Pakistan/India/Brazil/Indonesia/Nigeria etc

    Also if China is slowing oil consumption it's because alternative energy sources have been provided.
     
  13. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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  14. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

    Post Count:
    24,150
  15. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    24,150
  16. Agrul

    Agrul TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    i don't think it's a surprise that the new seattle MW worked out

    i don't think that same MW would work out in e.g. small rural communities tho. some more local measure of price levels probably needs to be built into any large on-average increase in the national MW
     
  17. Samassi Abou

    Samassi Abou TZT Abuser

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    Countries with much higher minimum wages than the US all have rural areas, and I've never heard of the minimum wage being a problem there.
     
  18. Agrul

    Agrul TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    May be that I'm overestimating it. I've never read any MW studies that specifically study the effects of a large, large-area MW increase on employment in regions with much-lower-than-average price levels.
     
  19. Velox

    Velox TZT Abuser

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    Well, at some point you trade higher mw for higher unemployment. E.g. Sweden has very little opportunity for low skill labor anymore. Compared to the US where you have service people in every corner. These are at the risk of being priced out of the market, but one would need to look at how sensitive the particular market is.

    It can still work regardless if you also push education opportunities to mitigate such a "skill mismatch" problem. In the modern labor market it is increasingly common to have both under supply and over supply of jobs at different ends of the skills spectrum.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  20. Agrul

    Agrul TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    At some point you encounter that trade-off, yeah, but by-and-large the econ literature has found that we're a lot further from that point than armchair economists like to suggest. The employment effects observed tend to be small and with inconsistent sign.

    What I was saying above is that I don't think that would necessarily be the case in imposing even a modest (ala $15) MW nation-wide in a country as large as the US, because while that MW is only a modest alteration to many cities's average wages, it will likely be a much larger increase to average wages in lots of small, rural towns.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019