The North Pole is an insane 36 degrees warmer than normal as winter descends

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by TulionKT, Nov 22, 2016.

  1. TulionKT

    TulionKT Spamaton Will Rise Again

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    The figures are in the link. Images were too big to be posted.

    Political people in the United States are watching the chaos in Washington in the moment. But some people in the science community are watching the chaos somewhere else — the Arctic.

    It’s polar night there now — the sun isn’t rising in much of the Arctic. That’s when the Arctic is supposed to get super-cold, when the sea ice that covers the vast Arctic Ocean is supposed to grow and thicken.

    But in fall of 2016 — which has been a zany year for the region, with multiple records set for low levels of monthly sea ice — something is totally off. The Arctic is super-hot, even as a vast area of cold polar air has been displaced over Siberia.

    At the same time, one of the key indicators of the state of the Arctic — the extent of sea ice covering the polar ocean — is at a record low. The ice is freezing up again, as it always does this time of year after reaching its September low, but it isn’t doing so as rapidly as usual.

    In fact, the ice’s area is even lower than it was during the record-low 2012:

    Twitter’s expert Arctic watchers also are stunned. Zack Labe, a PhD student at the University of California at Irvine who studies the Arctic, tweeted out an image on Wednesday from the Danish Meteorological Institute showing Arctic temperatures about 20 degrees Celsius higher than normal above 80 degrees North Latitude.

    “Today’s latest #Arctic mean temperature continues to move the wrong direction . . . up. Quite an anomalous spike!,” Labe wrote. Here’s the figure:

    As you can see, temperatures north of 80 latitude were around -5 degrees Celsius — still below freezing, but not by that much — instead of the normal of around -25 degrees C.

    “Despite onset of #PolarNight, temperatures near #NorthPole increasing. Extraordinary situation right now in #Arctic, w/record low #seaice,” added Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.

    This is the second year in a row that temperatures near the North Pole have risen to freakishly warm levels. During 2015’s final days, the temperature near the Pole spiked to the melting point thanks to a massive storm that pumped warm air into the region.

    So what’s going on here?

    “It’s about 20C [36 degrees Fahrenheit] warmer than normal over most of the Arctic Ocean, along with cold anomalies of about the same magnitude over north-central Asia,” Jennifer Francis, an Arctic specialist at Rutgers University, said by email Wednesday.

    “The Arctic warmth is the result of a combination of record-low sea-ice extent for this time of year, probably very thin ice, and plenty of warm/moist air from lower latitudes being driven northward by a very wavy jet stream.”

    Francis has published research suggesting that the jet stream, which travels from west to east across the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-latitudes, is becoming more wavy and elongated as the Arctic warms faster than the equator does.

    “It will be fascinating to see if the stratospheric polar vortex continues to be as weak as it is now, which favors a negative Arctic Oscillation and probably a cold mid/late winter to continue over central and eastern Asia and eastern North America. The extreme behavior of the Arctic in 2016 seems to be in no hurry to quit,” Francis continued.

    Francis cited the work of Judah Cohen, a forecaster with Atmospheric and Environmental Research, who has linked odd jet stream behavior with cold air over Siberia.

    Indeed, another Arctic expert, James Overland with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said that the jet stream at the moment is well configured to transport warmth northward into the Arctic. “There is strong warm advection into the Arctic, especially northern-central Canada, in through the Atlantic, and east Siberian/Chukchi Sea,” Overland said.

    The whole situation is pretty extreme, several experts agreed.

    “Both the persistence and magnitude of these temperature anomalies are quite unusual,” Labe added by email. “Large variability in temperatures is common in the Arctic (especially during the cold season), but the duration of this warm Arctic — cold Siberia pattern is unusual and quite an impressive crysophere/sea ice feedback.” (The “cryosphere” refers to that part of the Earth’s system that is made up of ice.)

    Abnormally warm air has flooded the Arctic since October. Richard James, a meteorologist who pens a blog on Alaska weather, analyzed 19 weather stations surrounding the Arctic Ocean and found that the average temperature was about 4 degrees (2 Celsius) above the record set in 1998.

    Since November, temperatures have risen even higher. “It is amazing to see that the warmth has become even more pronounced since the end of October,” James wrote on his blog.

    Mark Serreze, who heads the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., agrees that something odd is going on. Not only are air temperatures unusually warm, but water temperatures are as well. “There are some areas in the Arctic Ocean that are as much as 25 degrees Fahrenheit above average now,” Serreze said. “It’s pretty crazy.”

    What’s happening, he explains, is sort of a “double whammy.” On the one hand, there is a “very warm underlying ocean” due to the lack of sea ice forming above it. But, at the same time, kinks in the jet stream have allowed warm air to flow northward and frigid Arctic air to descend over Siberia.

    “The sea ice is at a record low right now, for this time of year, that’s one thing,” Serreze said. “And why it’s so low — again, there’s so much heat in the upper ocean in these ice-free areas, the ice just can’t form right now. The ocean’s just got to get rid of this heat somehow, and it’s having a hard time doing so.”
  2. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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  3. Holystrife

    Holystrife What the fuck did you just try to put in my ass?

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    Nothing to see here. Other than, you know, coastal states and countries being drown.
  4. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    Tulion you need to stop bringing science into your politics and start welcoming conservatives who want to challenge your opinions.

  5. CanadaEQ

    CanadaEQ TZT Neckbeard

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    I'm at 69 degrees north. This winter is a lot warmer so far. It's been snowing a lot this month and a lot of planes have been cancelled. Which usually happens in October. By November is usually too cold for clouds and snow.
  6. Red

    Red TZT Neckbeard

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    Who really likes sea ice anyway
  7. AgelessDrifter

    AgelessDrifter TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    reality skews liberal
  8. Skars

    Skars I never troll

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    the older i get the more i am beginning to realise we may as well just go peak capitalism and rape the planet because the generation behind us is completely fucked.
  9. Samassi Abou

    Samassi Abou TZT Abuser

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    Scientists are heating up the North Pole so they can scam mad profits.
  10. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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  11. Bailon

    Bailon TZT Neckbeard

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    God will save us.
  12. Taket the White

    Taket the White TZT Abuser

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    I sometimes wish Jesus were real and came back just so he could chew the right wing a new asshole for this and dozens of other nonsensical views they hold.

  13. Velox

    Velox TZT Abuser

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    Not to mention that nobody seems to like millennials anyway :p
  14. Czer

    Czer I'm a poor person. The lambo is my cousin's.

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    Baby boomers and gen x'ers, just kill all of them.
  15. BanedenHR

    BanedenHR TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    president trump told me that global warming is fake
  16. Jxands

    Jxands TZT Abuser

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    Gulp gulp gulp. Sop it up little piggies!

    One side of the pole is 36 degrees warmer, the other side of the pole is 36 degrees cooler? Global warming or polar shift as was predicted?

    I'm just surprised there is any ice left up there at all when previous "scientific models" predicted it would be close to gone and snow in the northern US would be a thing of the past by now.

    Wish I could play "close enough" in Vegas!
  17. Taket the White

    Taket the White TZT Abuser

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    Jesus fucking Christ jxands, do you really think the entirety of climate change research and evidence is in those right wing op-eds you read? Are you that fucking dense or scientifically illiterate to think you have any grasp of the issue itself without at the very least skimming primary research?

    The fucking hubris you have concerning a topic you know so little about is fucking absurd, and explains a lot about you as a person.

  18. SkafflocTZ

    SkafflocTZ TZT Addict

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    He is trolling you Taket.... or he's an old ignorant turd who isn't willing to deal in factual data.... take your pick. If he is the later, no amount of objective data will convince him.

    Yet there is some hope...

    Economic forces will overtake the continued stupidity of climate change denial.
  19. Jxands

    Jxands TZT Abuser

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    Here's one of my right wing blogs.

    Funny how the article most news sites copied for the mass of hysterics leaves out the other half of the story.....on purpose?

    Perhaps we can still blame man! Let's go with my polar shift theory and blame it on too many people in China throwing the earth off its axis! See? We can still freak out about it! Happy?
  20. SkafflocTZ

    SkafflocTZ TZT Addict

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    You cannot even discuss the physics of the greenhouse effect Jxands so fuck off.