quora post from inside quarantined wuhan

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Agrul, Feb 2, 2020.

  1. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    j/k prayers up for our transatlantic meatball pals
     
  2. Velox

    Velox TZT Abuser

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    Interesting data. I'm not rly defending any country, afaik some have not been testing people outside of risk groups for some while now, while some still test those that have been in contact w/ infected people, and e.g. Iceland is testing anybody that wants, as capacity permits. It's a selection bias nightmare.

    Sweden seems to have a rather lax attitude compared to most others, we'll see how that works out. A case could also be made for not even wanting the restrict the spread, only slow it to what your hospitals can handle. That is the key metric imo, but I haven't seen data on that. We can only tell if a coutry failed when mortality rate goes through the roof.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  3. AgelessDrifter

    AgelessDrifter TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    Utumno and Kanmuk_Sealclubber like this.
  4. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    Coronavirus is really spurring a Golden Era for charts.
     
    Red and Utumno like this.
  5. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    I wish we could just go back to posting charts about meaningless basketball stats instead of pandemic death rates.
     
  6. Agrul

    Agrul TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    canada's love of well-woven charts can only be slaked in blood
     
  7. Red

    Red TZT Neckbeard

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  8. Fais

    Fais TZT Abuser

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    What a bunch of tools
    Is there a particular prediction you have a problem with? I just being trying to keep up with the story. Got laid off with severance in August. Had all this free time, been bummed about my job and what to do next. Then this thing hits right around Christmas. Basically I heard an initial report that had some math in it that triggered me to believe there was a chance that this virus could not be stopped. But we have heard some crazy data before that turned out to be wrong later, I didn't take action. Then in January we started getting more and more reports and we were able to piece together a quasi range for the r0, but it turns out our tight packed cities when they are not thinking about disease... spread this virus pretty freaking fast. So there is just a ton of factors in sociology, psychology,economics its way beyond any one persons skills. I think at some point you can't perfectly quantify a problem and you have to go with your instinct. Its being a crazy ride and can't wait to get off. But right now my situation is I'm chilling at the house with my family. My wife isn't having as much fun, but thats because her parents are staying with us and the kids are home. Plus all sorts of people are trying to talk to me. I spoke to a doctor today, plus my large family everyday group chat (as this sent shockwaves since people in my family were talking about my behavior negatively, and had changed their minds). I have you all to thank for keeping me on my toes. But your right the solutions for this go way beyond my skills. So I'm glad to see people beating me up. Because frankly I don't want to own this, unless I have too. Which I don't think is the case. :) Was crazy though.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  9. Red

    Red TZT Neckbeard

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  10. Red

    Red TZT Neckbeard

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    WHY CAN I EMBED THIS SHIT FUCK YOU UTUMNO
     
  11. Fais

    Fais TZT Abuser

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    Have you all thought about he implications of this election to the political landscape for years and maybe a generation?
     
  12. TulionKT

    TulionKT Spamaton Will Rise Again

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  13. Fais

    Fais TZT Abuser

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  14. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    No implications expected imo. Trump base is literally impervious to any form of doubt. Decades of grooming by talk radio, fox, and the complete takeover of most Christian news sources is pretty solid.

    Some people of course will fault trump and other gop for their initial response but among the base it will be a very small minority, at least anecdotally speaking I already see endless "trump reacted faster than any other country, liberal media is lying to you" posts
     
  15. AgelessDrifter

    AgelessDrifter TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    My prediction is that we’ll continue to prepare and respond at about the level of urgency that we have so far (ie nowhere near enough to prevent the disease catastrophe, but enough to trash the economy), the pushback will continue against the economic damage until shit really hits the fan somewhere (which will be NYC, probably), then the oligarchs will point to the disaster and say “see, they ruined the economy and it didn’t help anyway,” and we’ll end up just hobbling through this like a macabre game of whack-a-mole as disaster crops up over and over again throughout the country and state and local officials do what they can.

    It’s hard to speculate about what happens politically beyond the point where people really start dropping dead in droves, but I have no faith at all that there’s any silver lining here couches in productive public outrage.

    At least initially the really terrible spots will be isolated enough in time and space that most of the country will be focused on the economic crisis, which will be (/is) really terrible everywhere all at once and right away, but within a few weeks everyone will be dealing with the disease everywhere, too, and who knows what will have happened by then.

    Once enough liberals in dense urban centers have died Trump will probably make some massive, stupid gesture that won’t help on the ground but will be something he can point to when it’s over and say “I did everything I could, but China fucked us because liberals are soft.”

    I think a lot hinges on just how bad things get in NYC (or somewhere else first, but I doubt it) before rents come due next week.
     
  16. Fais

    Fais TZT Abuser

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    Your both peasants. Or the little orcs that chop the trees down.
     
  17. Red

    Red TZT Neckbeard

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  18. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    Case in point, his approval rating ticking up per FiveThirtyEight so far.
     
  19. Velox

    Velox TZT Abuser

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    This was expected imo, voters rally around their leaders during diasters. Given how divided the media landscape is, he has to really fuck things up for it to have any impact whatsoever. We'll have to see what happens when more people start dying. At some point it might reach the escape velocity from Trumptopia. I fear too many are already beyond the event horizon though.
     
  20. Agrul

    Agrul TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    what kinds of rides do you think a theme park named trumptopia would have, anyway