Mayweather vs. McGregor

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Kanmuk_Sealclubber, Jun 14, 2017.

  1. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    I will not be paying money to watch one of the greatest boxers of all-time box an amateur, but I might bet on it if casual betters move the line enough that there's value in it. Currently it's at -1100 for Mayweather. I'm actually hesitant because I don't trust the fight not to be fixed. For realz.

    I'm actually fascinated by the fact that this fight is happening and it's a huge cultural phenomenon that will take in between half-a-billion to a billion dollars. It's pretty solid evidence that we are a bunch of trained apes. I'm a sheep as well, because I want to know who wins despite the fact that it means nothing and one guy isn't even a boxer.
     
  2. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    Would you say in all your sports betting you've overall made money or lost money? Has this been by a significant amount?
     
  3. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    The only time I ever bet on sportsball was betting on some Broncos games back when I was into football due to some friends/roomates and we would drive to Reno and lay money down. I think I roughly broke even all told but it made the games so much fun to watch because on top of rooting for your team you also had money on the line and that was p great.
     
  4. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    I usually don't watch games I bet on. It ruins the fun of watching the sport for the sport itself, and it usually makes you dumber. I'm Knish from Rounders. I'm boring and don't care about the thrill of it. I do well, but it's hard and one additional stupid decision in 50 kills your profits.

    54% ATS makes you one of the best in the world. 52% ATS will make you broke over time. The margins are very small.
     
  5. Red

    Red TZT Neckbeard

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    I think it's going to be a huge boring waste of time with Mayweather running around for 12 and getting the decision like all of his fights. That being said I will still lay down money on McGregor in case of an upset and I win sweet delicious gold coins
     
  6. Capis_Macleod

    Capis_Macleod TZT Regular

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    Going to be fun either way kinda a freak show thing.
     
  7. Fais

    Fais TZT Abuser

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    Boxing is easily the most fixed sport. Its hard to get interested when so many have taken falls, and others have picked rounds.
     
  8. Ssalam

    Ssalam TZT Abuser

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    MacGregor has heavy hands and good timing. He's not nearly as skilled as Mayweather, but he has a puncher's chance. If the fight isn't fixed, Mayweather has a 95% chance of winning this fight. I think it will likely go to decision, but he can win via TKO if Connor hasn't reconditioned himself to handle the heavier gloves.

    That said, I think a lot of people are underestimating his conditioning after seeing what happened in the first Diaz fight. A UFC bout is significantly shorter than a boxing match, but being able to rest every 3 minutes instead of every 5 will help him with recovery. In addition, he only has to worry about punches, which will allow him to utilize energy that is typically used for kicking and grappling. That said, Mayweather is going to make him work, and if he slows down after round 6, I expect Mayweather to start running circles around him.

    As I mentioned before, Connor punched himself out in the first Diaz fight. He learned his lesson in the second fight and didn't swing for the fences nearly as often. I am unsure if MacGregor will opt for the former or the latter against Mayweather. He might see a KO as his only possibility for a victory and come out swinging. I think he can make it 5 or 6 rounds like this, with the first 3 being his best. After that, he will go downhill fast. If he opts for the latter, I think he can take it the distance, but he will easily lose by decision.

    If I was Mayweather and had no morals, I would absolutely throw this fight, though. There is SO much money to be made from a rematch. Sure, it would taint his record, but it would net him another 9 figures. Who else will get him that kind of money?
     
  9. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    I will gladly watch this like a sheep, but smart money says McGregor gets killed here. He's never boxed before, isn't even the best striker in his UFC weight class, and will be facing the best boxer in the world for his debut fight. Do we need to analyze it beyond that?

    I would love to see him win, though.

    I'm a little surprised that Dana White agreed to this deal. If McGregor gets clowned by Mayweather in the first round, it makes the entire UFC look like a bit of a joke. I suppose there's so much money involved that it doesn't really matter, and you could reason that a McGregor loss won't hurt MMA legitimacy too much because nobody is expecting him to win anyway.
     
  10. Velox

    Velox TZT Abuser

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    I would have paid money to see it under UFC rules. Mayweather finally pinned down?
     
  11. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    I'd say that under MMA rules Mayweather would have even less of a chance than McGregor does in a boxing match.

    If you've watched Toney/Couture, then you've seen any boxer-vs-MMA match: they get taken down immediately and submitted or KO'd via ground-and-pound. The standing portion of the fight lasts about 5 seconds.
     
  12. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    Yeah, Ssalam. In a real world, both-trying-their-hardest, setting, you have to put Mayweather's odds at something close to 99 to 99.9%. This is arguably the greatest boxer of all-time, a guy who has been knocked down once in his career, going against a UFC fighter (in a UFC fight, I would put McGregor's odds at a legit 100%). Take off a couple percentage points because of age, if you want. The public is likely going to Great White Hype bet Mayweather down to like an 80-85% favourite and that's a discrepancy you only get on rare occasion. It would be like if Alabama was only 80% favourites over Southern Wichita Cooking College.

    But I just can't stomach laying down $10,000 on a fight in which Mayweather (or the refs/judges) may be fighting for a second payday. Even if he tries to win, he might try to let McCregor keep it close enough to justify a rematch, and then bad things could happen. He's not going to go up in weight at 40 years old to fight GGG or Andre Ward, and those are the only guys that could get him a $200 million payday.

    McCregor made $15 million for his last UFC fight, even though he is worth a million, or more, PPV buys and probably inflated the company value by hundreds of millions/billlions (Rousey is a lot of that, too). He's probably going to make $100-$200 million for a novelty fight where he isn't going to get hurt. I wouldn't put it past the two of them to collude for a rematch.

    Still, though, if it gets down to like -600, you have to put money on that shit.
     
  13. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    $10k, holy shit I'ma start calling you Big Baller Muk
     
  14. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    Also are y'all actually PPV'ing this shit or do these things actually get streamed decently via non-standard methods?
     
  15. Ssalam

    Ssalam TZT Abuser

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    Here's all I will say in defense of MacGregor: His timing is phenomenal, and he is a very big light middleweight. I said 95% instead of 99% because I believe more strongly than most that Connor has a realistic chance to catch Floyd. At 40, Floyd is starting to slow down a tad. If MacGregor can land one solid counter, his size and vision might allow him to finish Mayweather.

    Don't mistake that as a vote of confidence for MacGregor. I agree that if they are both trying their best, MacGregor has almost no chance. However, I genuinely believe that MacGregor has talent. When he first entered the UFC, I thought he was all hype, but I've seen enough of his fights to come to believe that his greatest ability is his knack for beating someone to the punch. Not necessarily with speed, but with timing. It's really, really good. Mayweather is going to be significantly cleaner than anyone he's fought in the UFC, so his window of opportunity will be very small. I would give him a 5% chance if they were both trying their best.

    One negative for MacGregor: I am curious if the added length of the gloves is going to mess with his range. He should have plenty of time to work on that, but everything matters at this level. He grew up boxing, so it shouldn't take him too long to re-adjust.

    Honestly, I am going to end up watching this fight. I will also enjoy the hype. It's already started. How can you not appreciate this a little? That's Mayweather's dad, for those of you who don't know boxing.

     
  16. Bailon

    Bailon TZT Neckbeard

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    Buying the PPV, rooting for the white man. I am pumped and I know it is silly and I know it is a 12 round decision for Mayweather by like 1,000% but whatever, have some fun, get high, eat good snacks and watch the circus.
     
  17. Sanlaven

    Sanlaven TZT Abuser

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    I would like to sing my song, it's called "Mr. Roper, Mr. Roper"
     
  18. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    Utumno - Big gambling numbers are deceptive. To make $4,000-$6,000 dollars, I have to put $100,000 in play. But you never have that much in play at one time, and the "real" risk on that $100,000, if you do it properly, is maybe a few thousand. If the "real" odds on a Mayweather victory are 99%, or even 95%, and you're putting down $10,000 at -800 to net you $1,250 (before the juice), that is MUCH less risky than making 100 separate 53/47% bets at $100 each (provided you can absorb a loss). The big money is going to be all over Mayweather , even at -1100. The small/casual money is going to be on McCregor, because nobody is going to put $100 on somebody for the chance to win $12 bucks. If boxing were on-the-level, it would be the best value bet I would ever have the chance to make in my life. But it's not, so it's not.

    Ssalam - I can't justify the difference between 95% and 99%. Floyd is 49-0, against real boxers, but exactly zero of those came at 40 years old and who knows how much he has slowed down. I don't know enough about the age curve of boxers at different weight classes to know when the drop-off starts. There's no such thing as certainty, and Floyd could absolutely lose. Low probability shit happens all the time. See: Trump, Donald. The question, as someone who knows fighting, is can you justify anything less than 85% odds for Mayweather? Which is the point I would jump on it.
     
  19. Ssalam

    Ssalam TZT Abuser

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    Yeah, I realized as I was typing that out that there is little difference between 95 and 99 for all intents and purposes, but was half-way through my post. There is almost always a sizable drop-off around 40, both in speed and chin, but I would almost certainly avoid betting on this event. There are just too many variables at play, including the very lucrative possibility for a rematch. The real question is how much money do you think Floyd Mayweather's pride is worth?
     
  20. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    ^ that's McGregor getting hit by Chris van Heerden

    “Conor showed me that he’s got some boxing background. His counter lefthand was pretty good,” van Heerden told The Washington Journal. “What chance does he have against Mayweather, the best boxer in the world? A puncher’s chance. So he swings well; he swings a big shot. Maybe he lands it. That might seal it for him. But honestly, do I see Conor beat Mayweather, no, I don’t.”


    I doubt it will be CM-Punk-in-the-UFC levels of embarrassing, but I don't see how anyone could give McGregor more than a puncher's chance (barring some freakish gain in aptitude for boxing in the span of a few months or Mayweather being out of shape)