AD'S 2021 POLITICS CATALINA WINE MIXER & JILL BIDEN BANGBUS II: TURBO EDITION

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by AgelessDrifter, Feb 26, 2021.

  1. Fais

    Fais TZT Abuser

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    I'm sure they knew it was going to be taken out and its mostly a political move. But I never voiced an opinion, so I guess I'm getting that out right now :).
     
  2. BanedenHR

    BanedenHR TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    i dont think the people pushing for across the board standard minimum wage hikes are thinking about the intricacies of economies or the nuances of local cost of living effects. its just become a progressive talking point (a symbolic battleground for the class war between the wealthy and the poor) and a way for people to cause division among democrats between the "progressives" and the "centrist" wings of the party

    meanwhile, republicans can sit back, do nothing, and get no blame
     
  3. Red

    Red TZT Neckbeard Lord

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  4. AgelessDrifter

    AgelessDrifter TZT Neckbeard Lord

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  5. Samassi Abou

    Samassi Abou TZT Abuser

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    Most countries have nationwide minimum wages, like they have universal healthcare systems.

    The unimaginable and unrealistic in America is normal in most countries.
     
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  6. Agrul the White

    Agrul the White TZT Regular

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    there's nothing wrong with a nationwide minimum wage, but in a large country w/ a lot of price variation, most of the work should be done by local indexing, with the nationwide minimum wage set significantly lower than is needed in major urban centers. it would genuinely cost many jobs, probably concentrated in poor "red" states, to have a $15 min wage in the US; the CBO, for exmaple, reported this in their study of the issue

    this is completely different than w/ UHC, where naive sentimanlity and economics align quite nicely, & there's no reason not to adopt it, only to manage the large disruption to middleman insurance jobs carefully
     
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  7. Sanaleb

    Sanaleb TZT Addict

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    Maybe we can just make less bombs. Who fucking cares if $15 is too much in some shithole states, 30k/yr is still poverty.
     
  8. BanedenHR

    BanedenHR TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    most countries are a lot smaller and less diverse than america though
     
  9. Grandasaur Egg

    Grandasaur Egg Groor.

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    this thread should mostly be about the nationwide voter suppression efforts republicans are attempting

    https://politicalwire.com/2021/02/27/stolen-election-myth-fuels-gop-drive-to-rewrite-rules/

    “Led by loyalists who embrace former President Donald Trump’s baseless claims of a stolen election, Republicans in state legislatures nationwide are mounting extraordinary efforts to change the rules of voting and representation — and enhance their own political clout,” the New York Times reports.

    “At the top of those efforts is a slew of bills raising new barriers to casting votes, particularly the mail ballots that Democrats flocked to in the 2020 election. But other measures go well beyond that, including tweaking Electoral College and judicial election rules for the benefit of Republicans; clamping down on citizen-led ballot initiatives; and outlawing private donations that provide resources for administering elections, which were crucial to the smooth November vote.”
     
  10. Grandasaur Egg

    Grandasaur Egg Groor.

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  11. Samassi Abou

    Samassi Abou TZT Abuser

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    No, American conventional wisdom is just backward on economic matters, just like it's been for decades on healthcare. Americans convince themselves that things they are not used to are impossible when other countries have accepted them for decades. This conventional wisdom is no doubt encouraged by wealthy and powerful vested interests who want to undermine any talk of increasing minimum wages with spurious arguments about poorer areas, as if other countries don't have poorer areas.

    You completely ignore the argument that almost every country in the developed world has a national minimum wage. How did the poorer areas that were subject to "a lot of price variation" compared to more wealthy areas manage to survive through the implementation of a national minimum wage?

    These areas not only survived. Those countries also weren't subject to the extreme growth of wealth inequality that characterizes modern America.

    Have a look at this graph, where the US minimum wage goes from the highest in the world in the 1960s, to not even being on the table today.

    https://blog.aigroup.com.au/australia-had-the-highest-minimum-wage-in-the-world-in-2019/

    When I visit economically poorer areas in Australia, why hasn't a national minimum wage turned them into economic wastelands? Because of a key insight of economics. My wage is your income. If someone who works in a small town supermarket, a rise in their wage increases their spending power, which they use in the shops in their town, which increases the incomes of those businesses, which makes it more likely that they'll employ more people.

    I know you, and the CBO, probably know all this theoretically, but you underplay its importance because you're stuck in the bubble of American economic thinking where raising the poors' wages costs jobs/leads to inflation/reduces the impulse to strive/blah blah.

    Hence, because of this sort of conventional wisdom, the wages of low income Americans have been declining for decades compared to other countries.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2021
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  12. Agrul the White

    Agrul the White TZT Regular

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    It isn't "American conventional wisdom". It's "estimates derived from empirically fitted mainstream economic models". The CBO's median estimate is 1.3 million jobs lost from a $15 federal minimum wage. Those would certainly be concentrated in areas of the US where prices and incomes are generally so low that $15 is a large increase in costs.

    I think other developed countries experience similar effects to the one I'm talking about, but in smaller degree, due to having less price variation. I also think they help to blunt the effect on newly unemployed workers with stronger safety nets than exist in the US. EDIT: Also, I think US wage & wealth inequality actually make the job-loss effects of an increased MW of a given size, ironically, worse/larger, since they imply a larger total change in prices faced by businesses.

    I'm not sure what the point of this is? What we need is a quantitative estimates of the effect on incomes, jobs, and prices of a given US minimum wage change. We have that from the CBO; if you have some credible competing study that suggests a $15 MW wouldn't create a bunch of extra unemployment in poor, cheap parts of the US, I'd love to see it, but I'm not seeing what "other countries/the US of the past have/had higher federal minimum wages" has to do with what the US MW should be.

    No, disagreeing with you about its magnitude in this specific instance, where professional economists have studied the effect sizes and concluded that 1.3M jobs will be lost, does not mean I or they "underplay its importance". I suspect the increased consumption caused by a minimum wage redistributing cash to people more likely to spend it has a great deal to do with the fact that studies like Card & Krueger regularly find small-to-modest increases in the minimum wage have no discernible employment effects, for example, and is important to the net job loss estimate of the CBO for a $10 federal MW being nil.

    But the trouble is that $15 isn't a small minimum wage increase, and is quite a bit higher than a "living wage", in many poorer parts of the US (and that the US has limited support for these workers once they've been put out of work). Santa Clara's housing prices are more than twice those of Memphis, for example. Those two parts of the country behave completely differently from one another, economically speaking; it makes no sense to pretend that the same minimum wage is ideal in both places. Tennessee appears to have no state minimum wage, and I'm not opposed to modestly increasing the relevant federal minimum wage, there (somewhere between $10 and $13 is probably decent, given the CBO study, although I'd like to see more locally specific estimates rather than just their national ones -- hm, especially since a net loss of 0 nationally probably means a significant loss, still, in poor/cheap states), but literally doubling it will cost significant jobs, per the CBO estimates, and it is states like TN that would pay most of that cost.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2021
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  13. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    I’m not a huge fan of blue collar populism in which we try to improve well-being by artificially manipulating labour value via pro-labour interventions and protectionism.

    Just directly improve well-being. Health care, college, day care, housing interventions, UBI. Provide services that make people’s lives better and dispense with all the capitalistic mythology in which everything has to be filtered through JOBS and WAGES and WORKING CLASS DIGNITY. “Minimum wage -> higher purchasing power-> money back into local businesses so they can now afford a higher minimum wage” may well be the equation. I have no idea (Samassi and Agrul are so far beyond me on macroecon that I can’t even form on opinion on who I agree with). It’s just convoluted. Day care paid for by well-off shitters like us is a bit more direct, is easier to follow, and accomplishes the same thing.
     
  14. Velox

    Velox TZT Abuser

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    Not necessarily easier to manage, you get incentive issues with UBI/transfer payments, where more people will just cut out full time work entirely.

    By raising salaries you also get the private sector to pay for this. Yeah most of it will come back in terms of higher prices, but not all. With UBI, the government would basically be subsidizing companies with low salaries. I'm not sure what kind of incentives that would create.

    The ideal solution is probably some combination of MW, progressive taxation and transfer payments. I'll note that Sweden doesn't actually have a MW, but union negotiated salaries per sector. Although unionization levels have kind of weakened over the last decade.
     
  15. Agrul the White

    Agrul the White TZT Regular

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    Price increases from MW increases are a lot less worrying than job losses, IMO.

    I think the MW has a place in the effort to redistribute wealth from higher to lower income percentiles, but you can't refuse to acknowledge the best available estimates of the costs of giving it a specific value. You may as well be Trump talking about "the greatest economy in history" if you're just going to substitute rhetoric for expert forecasts whenever it makes you feel good.

    EDIT: And the MW is, as I harped on earlier, a very blunt mechanism. Local/regional (but federally imposed) minimum wage floors indexed to local prices would make a lot more sense (ideally calculated to not trap people in low-income areas even when working at the local/regional MW, but hard to guess at how the details would work out once you looked at quantitative estimates of job losses / income changes). You could get the benefit of ensuring large cities pay a living wage without large employment losses from inducing a large nominal MW increase in areas that cannot afford it readily.

    You could still raise/lower all of them together and have that substitute for the '(geographically constant) federal minimum wage' conversation, i.e. you could still talk about whether they're generally too high or too low (although you should less often need to do so, since they'd naturally track regional inflation). You'd just get a mechanism less likely to cause large job market disruptions because it was calibrated to NYC but imposed on bumfuck Lousiana, or vice versa.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2021
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  16. Agrul the White

    Agrul the White TZT Regular

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    I don't know of any good FRED series for it, but also interesting to look at other kinds of prices. Here's food prices: This random website suggests about $500 for a month's worth of groceries in Santa Clara, versus ~$250 in Memphis, TN.
     
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  17. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    That’s what I’m trying to avoid, and why I think minimum wage is a bit convoluted. It’s questionable whether or not the “private sector” can afford it and will opt-in (i.e. will they reduce jobs instead?). It’s not questionable whether or not Agrul, Kanmuk, Velox and Jeff Bezos can afford it.

    So it becomes a question of:

    A) Will we opt out? Will we leave the country in order to avoid paying higher taxes?

    B) Is it inefficient?

    C) Incentivization issues.

    I don’t think the first two are very compelling (feel free to shit on me for being naive). The third one is likely to be a bigger issue than I am giving credit to off-the-cuff and I am interested in any more in-depth arguments.

    I’m not sure I really care about “subsidizing low wages”. You can just take that back in the form of taxes. But doing so via taxes means companies and individuals that can afford it are paying it, rather than making Gertrude & Sons Furniture grapple with keeping people employed.

    Of course, it becomes harder to do when the mindset of a nation is that raising taxes is an unforgivable sin.
     
  18. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    I really need you guys to elect Andrew Yang in New York so we can see what a UBI administered through Bitcoin looks like.
     
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  19. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    I think this website is wrong. I don’t see “McFlurries” anywhere on their pie charts. How are we supposed to analyze food prices when the #1 cost is excluded?
     
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  20. Agrul the White

    Agrul the White TZT Regular

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    when those fools created a big mac index before a mcflurry index, they were spitting in the face of god
     
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