2020 election cycle thread

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by AgelessDrifter, Dec 31, 2018.

  1. Skars

    Skars I never troll

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    TRUTH HURTS BRO
     
  2. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    So here's some evidence that name recognition matters, and the "people know who Warren is and hate her!!!!!" counterargument might not be as straightforward as it's often presented (this is of course, just one interpretation of the numbers and shouldn't be taken too seriously. It's also net favourability, not election polling):
    0F2F7FE5-EE53-4DC0-907F-5B61ED97D732.jpeg

    And here's some more evidence that Biden's popularity is strongest among the dinosaur population of the Democratic Party:

    FD841A42-20B2-42E0-970F-4CBA6606154E.jpeg

    Although his numbers are still quite strong amongst the irreligious, even if not as dominant as they are against the religious.


    Both polls brought to you by 538, who I like to rely on to do all my thinking for me.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2019
  3. Samassi Abou

    Samassi Abou TZT Abuser

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    I don't think that anyone was arguing that Warren was particularly unpopular with Democrats. More that she's not very well liked more broadly.

    Realclearpolitics has her at -5% favourability, compared to Bernie's -2% and Biden's +8%.
     
  4. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    It's not about whether she's popular or unpopular. When people talk about early poll numbers being strongly related to name recognition, she is often cited as a counter-example. But she is bundled right near 538's trend line (like every other major candidate) among Democrats (edit: again, this is only for favourability, not overall polling numbers).

    Net favourability among GOP members doesn't matter all that much, but that's a good point about independents, and I don't know if the same name recognition patterns hold for them. We'd have to see. But we would expect her overall net favourability to be lower than Biden's simply because he favourability among Democrats is lower (a 13-15 point difference among dems probably doesn't explain a 13 point difference overall, though).

    I'm less concerned with who is and isn't popular than why they are or aren't popular, and if the numbers can change. In terms of the primary, there is room for optimism that some of Biden's enormous lead can be evaporated *if* other candidates can start getting media attention. Biden is currently stomping everyone in that area, though.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2019
  5. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    9,166