2018 NBA Ageless Dirker White Mamba Scalabrine Clambake

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Sear, Sep 15, 2018.

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WHITE MAMBA

  1. BRIAN SCALABRINE THE GOAT

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Dirk Nowitzki

    1 vote(s)
    10.0%
  3. Luka Doncic

    1 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. Delly

    0 vote(s)
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  5. Joe Ingles

    2 vote(s)
    20.0%
  6. Rick Barry shooting granny free throws

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Shawn Bradley (Space Jam star, stormin mormon, rape victim of Shaq)

    1 vote(s)
    10.0%
  8. Darko Milicic, Detroit Legend

    1 vote(s)
    10.0%
  9. Bill Murray

    4 vote(s)
    40.0%
  1. Red

    Red TZT Neckbeard

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    I mean is there anything that Tom can't do? I'm sure if he played for the Lakers he would have win them the championship this year.
     
  2. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    I can't, he's too busy counting RANGZ

    upload_2019-3-12_18-13-22.png

    (picture outdated too lol)
     
  3. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    I don't like that PER doesn't weigh any shot selection/distance or usage rates, so [C/PF shooting 60% on lay-ins around the basket] is going to be valued higher than the best mid-range jump shooter in the league.

    I think it can be pretty misleading. Case in point: Russell Westbrook's 30.5 PER beating Steph Curry that year and any year of Dirk/Duncan's careers. He is not even in the same ballpark as those guys when it comes to efficiency, but the stat thinks he is.

    Curry's 31.5 PER season is actually undervalued IMO - he didn't have the luxury of rebounds or an insane USG% boosting that number. When you have to add or subtract after looking at raw stats to get their "true" PER, then I'd say the formula needs to be reworked.
     
  4. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    PER is an efficiency stat, so it’s basically “how many box score stats do you compile per possession.” Westbrook was king of this for a while.

    It supplies zero context. Stealing rebounds, getting garbage Rondo assists, catching easy lobs when your star is triple teamed, etc, still count towards your PER. I agree entirely that you have to analyze thr context yourself. But it’s a good snapshot to show how valuable a player is per possession, and it is highly correlated with other value stats and offensive efficiency.

    But, yeah, Curry is not the 13th best player in the league. Jonas Valanciunas is not better than Kevin Durant. It’s not perfect.
     
  5. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    Man the disrespekt to Big Jonas V
     
  6. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    Filling up the box score needs to be measured against a player's USG%. FG% needs the context of assisted/unassisted and weighted-by-distance. It's just surprising to me that an all-encompassing advanced stat named Player Efficiency Rating does not include these things, especially when it's this convoluted to begin with:

    [​IMG]

    TLDR: Fuck Hollinger and ESPN. I'm gonna formulate something better.
     
  7. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    I look forward to seeing the formula for SPERM (Sear's Player Efficiency Rating Metric) and how the top NBA players end up ranked.

    I'll be disappointed if there's not a special if-then statement that dings Westbrook 17% just for being himself.
     
    Sear likes this.
  8. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    There will be.

    I looked up some FG%-by-distance stats just out of curiosity. Career averages listed in this order: 3-10ft, 10-16, 16-23, 3P.

    Lebron: 41.8 / 36.9 /38.7 / 34.4
    Dirk: 40.9 / 47.2 / 47.7 / 38.3
    Durant: 44.4 / 45.4 / 43.7 / 38.2
    Kobe: 44.8 / 43.9 / 40.2 / 32.9
    Westbrook: 31.7 / 39.2 / 38.5 / 30.2

    They only started tracking this after 2000'ish, so Jordan's prime stats aren't available. It's worth mentioning that he shot 44% from 10-16 and 42.5% from 16-23 in his last season with Washington, though. He took a lot of shots from those two ranges (~75% of his shot selection).

    I wonder if Lebron's game will age as well as Jordan. He doesn't have the same mid-range game in his arsenal and probably doesn't want to be taking it inside as much when he's pushing 40. I imagine he'll just be taking a lot of threes on mediocre efficiency, kinda like Kobe did in his last few seasons.
     
  9. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    Wow, LeBron is an even shittier midrange shooter than I thought.

    PER is definitely usage dependent. I think PER is a good stat, but I have the same issues with it that you do. When I do "snapshot" takes on players, I try weight both PER and RPM (when available), because I think the two combined can give you a better idea than either flawed stat on their own. When the two converge, like with Harden or Giannis, we can safely assume that those guys are awesome. Whereas Karl Towns (4th in PER, but 17th in RPM) or Kyle Lowry (12th in RPM, but 95th in PER) are probably not as good as we might think if we just looked at one of the numbers on a given day.

    LeBron's game has already aged ridiculously well. He is 34 and has played 18 trillion games of basketball. I Do think he will fall off a cliff at some point, though, for reasons you said. Is he going to want to be the 317th best player in the league chucking up garbage on sub .500 TS% like Kobe? Does he have the MAMBA MENTALITY TO DO IT?
     
  10. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    Lebron's strengths as a playmaker and physical presence will ensure that he ages much better than Kobe did.

    Kobe actually had a really good shot from 3-16 feet, but didn't take many of them. And he never passed the ball. So yeah. He was tough to watch in the last few years.
     
  11. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    also pls notice that Westbrook can't shoot better than 40% unless he's right by the basket

    that's really bad + he's bad + Westbrook sux

    he has an unadjusted SPERM of -69.42

    I'll be contacting Jazz fans to let him know about this

     
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  12. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    The problem with midrange is that it is a relatively bad shot, even if you’re amazing at them. They don’t benefit from the magical 50% bonus that threes do, and they don’t have a high free throw rate. If someone was a 51% midrange shooter (almost unheard of) and hit at that rate every single time down the court, his team would be one of the worst offences in NBA history. Modern offences come in at the equivalent of around 55% on average. There aren’t many situations in which someone’s career numbers would be better if they took more midrange shots.

    Dirk was an anomaly in that he was so god damn good at even contested midrange shots that they it opened up offence for others (why he was the Steph Curry of his day in terms of making his teammates better). But that’s rare.

    The only way to hit modern superstar efficiency (around 60%) is a) dunks and layups, b) free throws and c) 3s. Until they start letting players play defence again, the post and the midrange will be secondary options at best.
     
  13. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    I see it as the basketball equivalent of a changeup pitch in baseball: it only exists to throw the defender off and force him to cover you on that part of the court. By itself, it's not a good shot, but it's beneficial to have it in your repertoire.

    The distance metrics were just interesting to me as a tool for assessing individual shooting ability. I wish I could mainline it into every Kobe or Wade fan who swears that their guy is the best shooter of all time (fortunately nobody really says this about Westbrook).
     
  14. AgelessDrifter

    AgelessDrifter TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    I'm genuinely curious how this formula was arrived at. There's so much in there it's hard to imagine what they were regressing against--is it supposed to predict something, or is it just HIGHER=>BETTER in a nebulous sort of way?
     
  15. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    PER is a descriptive stat. It's "more of things that help you win (points, rebounds, etc) are good" and "more of things that help you lose (turnovers, missing shots, etc) are bad". He tries to weight them by the amount the correlate to winning, and then adjusts them to league average.

    It's long because they try to stuff everything measurable from a box score into one stat and then adjust it based on league averages. It has its pros and cons.
     
  16. Sear

    Sear TZT Neckbeard Lord

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    I'll deep dive on that when I have too much time on my hands and use some example values. I think like 90% of the formula is solid. It just falls short in a few areas and values some broad stats too highly. You could probably simplify the VOP multipliers to make it more readable.

    Can Denver remember that they're a top-seeded playoff team and beat Dallas please? They're fucking up our tank and making Dwight Powell look better than Jokic.
     
  17. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    This rookie class is awesome.

    Ayton: 16.4/10.4/1.8, 60.7 TS%, 20.56 PER

    Doncic: 21.0/7.4/5.7, 54.8 TS%, 19.35 PER

    Bagley: 13.9/7.1/1.0, 56.9 TS%, 18.32 PER

    Jackson: 13.8/4.7/1.1, 59.1 TS%, 16.58 PER

    Young: 18.3/3.5/7.8, 53.4 TS%, 16.08 PER

    Those are the top 5 picks, and all of them have been good. Doncic has got to be the clear ROY, but Ayton is close (I will win my ROY future, thx you two). Doncic’s numbers are actually insane given his level of responsibility for Dallas. His rookie year is superior to LeBron’s. LeBron had his during a deadball era, but it’s still impressive by Doncic.

    There are a handful of guys behind those five that have promise, as well (Wendell Carter, Shamet, Mikal Bridges, Bamba in limited minutes, etc).
     
  18. Utumno

    Utumno Administrator Staff Member

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    Yeah, seriously. What a loaded draft.
     
  19. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    Let's talk about how good my soulmate Giannis is on defense in an offense oriented league. From Zach Lowe:

    I don't know how you pick between Giannis and Harden for MVP. Harden is the superior offensive player, by a mile. But Giannis is still good offensively (27.5 ppg, 6 assists, 2.3 offensive rebounds, 64.3 TS%). And he anchors the best defense in the NBA. I think you might have to go with Giannis in this situation. He leads the league in PER, as well.
     
  20. Kanmuk_Sealclubber

    Kanmuk_Sealclubber Yes

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    Let's talk about Searyx's soulmate Luka Doncic and how good he is at his age. From Kirk Goldsberry:



    and:

    Doncic 2.jpg

    He's average or above from everywhere except above the break. The fact that he kills people from the corners is going to make him impossible to guard as he develops over the next couple of years. He can be an off-the-ball threat if they get a second playmaker to go with him. If big Kristaps Prizingis becomes a good passer, it's going to be scary.